Does Bill James's Pythagorean Formula Apply to England's Premier League?


  • Katherine A. Reinmuth Middlebury College
  • Paul Martin Sommers Middlebury College
Keywords: Bill James's Pythagorean Formula, English Premier League, soccer

Abstract


Bill James’s Pythagorean formula relates runs scored and runs allowed to team winning in Major League Baseball.  Researchers have applied James’s Pythagorean formula to basketball, ice hockey, and tennis, among other sports.  Current literature, however, questions the applicability of the Pythagorean approach to soccer.  This paper finds that such results may be because the dependent variable is based on the Fédération Internationale de Football Association’s (FIFA) point system rather than wins and losses.  The authors successfully apply James’s Pythagorean formula to soccer and, in particular, England’s Premier League (EPL).  Between 2000/01 and 2016/17, there is a statistically significant relationship between a team’s goal ratio (defined as goals scored divided by goals allowed) and a team’s win-loss ratio.  A one percent increase in the goal ratio is associated with a 1.70 percent increase in the win-loss ratio.

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Author Biographies

Katherine A. Reinmuth, Middlebury College
Student
Paul Martin Sommers, Middlebury College
Professor of Economics
Published
12-31-2018

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How to Cite
Reinmuth, K. A., & Sommers, P. M. (2018). Does Bill James’s Pythagorean Formula Apply to England’s Premier League?. Journal of Student Research, 7(2), 25-28. Retrieved from https://www.jofsr.org/index.php/path/article/view/460
Section
Research Articles